Iceland provide hope for the minnows

Iceland’s fairytale quest to reach the 2014 World Cup ended last night in Zagreb, as an experienced Croatian side professionally saw them off in a comfortable 2-0 home win. But they have provided hope for the minnows, which is only enhanced by the expanded Euro 2016 format where Europe’s unfancied sides could make an impact.

Despite having a population of just 320,000, and only 20,000 registered male and female players they were only one game away from Brazil, and whilst many will point to their relatively easy group which Switzerland topped, it’s important to recognise that the Icelandic’s were amongst the lowest seeds in Europe when the initial draw was made.

Ranked lower than Liechtenstein, and alongside the likes of San Marino and Andorra, Iceland were in pot 6 when the draw for the World Cup qualifying was made, which only heightens their achievement. They’re progress is further highlighted by their Euro 2012 qualifying record where they only recorded a solitary win, a 1-0 triumph at home to Cyprus in front of just 5,267 people.

But they’re recent success is more than just a fluke. They have invested heavily in indoor pitches over the last decade, in a bid to create a golden generation of players, to give them a real chance of progressing to a major tournament. The progress their Under 21 side is making shows that Iceland are here to stay.

In their qualification group for the Euro 2015 Under 21 Championships they sit second, just 3 points behind France but with a huge 6 point gap on the 3^rd place team. Similarly to the senior team, this comes just after a disastrous previous qualification campaign, where they finished bottom of their Euro 2013 U21 qualification group, losing 7 of their 8 matches which included home and away defeats to Azerbaijan.

This just goes to show that long term planning can work. There is no coincidence that the national team has enjoyed a great change in fortunes in recent years, when in the year 2000 only 5 artificial pitches existed in the country, with only 7 mini pitches. By 2010 there were 17 artificial grass pitches, 7 football halls and 130 mini pitches. Years of hard work is starting to pay off.

Other smaller nations are also following suit with mini successes of their own. Most notably Montenegro, a team which England are very familiar with, having only beaten them once out of 4 attempts in the last few years. They’re population is well under 1 million, like Iceland’s, yet they too have threatened to qualify for major tournaments in recent years.

They lost out to Czech Republic in the Euro 2012 playoffs and acquitted themselves well when charged with qualifying for the 2014 World Cup, again showing that much can be achieved with little resources. It is also amazing to consider the progress they have made when only 1 of the 23 members of the 2006 Serbia and Montenegro World Cup squad actually came from Montenegro.

The progress the supposed ‘smaller’ nations have made has become more important than ever due to the expansion of the European Championships from the 2016 tournament, where 24 teams will qualify rather than the original 16. This means that just over half of UEFA’s members will be competing at the tournament.

The smaller nations now have their chance at glory, if they don’t seize it now, they never will.

Road to Brazil 2014: The end is nigh

22 countries remaining, 11 places left, only 17 matches to go. The road to Brazil reaches a climax this week as teams ranging from Iceland to Uruguay bid to secure their spot at next year’s World Cup.

Europe

Only 4 of the remaining 8 European countries can qualify with 2-legged ties held this Friday and next Tuesday determining their fates.

Portugal vs. Sweden is undoubtedly the tie of the round, largely due to the presence of both Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Both players are in fine form this season, with a combined record of 38 goals in 32 games so far. Obviously there’s more to the match than just these two mere mortals, with both sides boasting a glut of Champions League players, although Portugal will likely run out winners due to the higher quality amongst their ranks.

Ukraine vs. France also looks to be an interesting tie, with the French aiming to qualify for the World Cup via the playoffs for the second time running after Thierry Henry’s infamous handball against Ireland in 2009. Although Ukraine were solid throughout the qualification process, they lack any true quality upfront, ensuring they will fall foul to a French side boasting impressive striking options, including the in-form Olivier Giroud.

Romania are bidding to make their 8^th appearance at the finals when they take on Greece in what promises to be a rather dull affair. The Greeks’ conservative tactics in the group stage ultimately cost them qualification, after Bosnia and Herzegovina went through with a vastly superior goal difference. The Romanians finished well behind Holland in their group and will probably finish second best to Greece as well who are the marginal favourites with the bookies.

Bayern Munich’s Mario Mandzukic could be lining up against Rotherham United defender Kari Arnason in what will be the biggest occasion in Icelandic football history, when they face Croatia for a place in the World Cup. Iceland are the huge outsiders with a population of just over 300,000 and have exceeded all expectations by getting this far, after initially being seeded in the lowest pot with San Marino and co when the draw for the qualification groups was made. Despite some quality players such as Gylfi Sigurdsson representing the Icelandic’s, Croatia should easily win over the 2 legs in what should prove to be the most one sided of the ties.

Africa

The second leg of the 5 qualifying ties will be played over the next week, with Africa’s giants finally getting to chance to cement their place in Brazil.

Papiss Cisse gave Senegal and modicum of hope with his late goal in their 3-1 defeat away at Ivory Coast last month but the tie should be all but over, barring any shenanigans from the Ivorians on Saturday evening. An early goal for the Senegalese could put the tie on a knife edge, but Didier Drogba’s men should easily have the quality to overcome any potential difficulties.

Nigeria should join Ivory Coast in Brazil if their game against Ethiopia goes to form. The Super Eagles fought back from 1-0 down in Addis Ababa to secure a 2-1 away win in the first leg. It’s hard to see any way back for Ethiopia who lack any real quality compared to the vastly experienced Nigerian side, who will be bidding to make consecutive World Cup appearances.

Perhaps the tie of the round will see Algeria taking on African Cup of Nations finalists Burkina Faso in Algiers on Tuesday, with the home side looking to overturn a 3-2 deficit from the first leg. The tie is delicately poised with Algeria’s away goals likely to be crucial, as a win for them will probably send them through.

After a drab goalless draw in Tunis last time out, Cameroon and Tunisia meet again on Sunday evening with the Cameroonians being the favourites to seize the initiative and qualify in front of a home crowd. With Samuel Eto’o up front they should have the firepower to get the job done against a relatively uninspiring Tunisian side.

Ghana are all but through to the World Cup after their 6-1 demolition at home to Egypt in their first leg one month ago. The Egyptians will need a miracle to turn it around in Cairo as the Black Stars will aim to repeat their 2010 heroics in Brazil next summer where they could make an appearance in the latter stages.

Inter-Continental Playoffs

Jordan vs. Uruguay; a fixture seldom played in international football, if ever. They meet today in the Middle East, and next Wednesday in Montevideo in what will surely be a very one sided contest. Jordan are a huge 16/1 to qualify with Uruguay being a measly 1/40 although this is justifiable as only 1 of the Jordanians plies his trade in Europe, playing for Romanian side Gaz Metan Medias. I fear a big score line awaits.

New Zealand face a similarly tough test when they face Mexico over 2 legs, the first of which being played this evening in the cavernous Aztec Arena. The pressure will be on the Mexicans who only just managed 4^th place in the Hexagonal stage of the North American Qualifying in a resoundingly disappointing campaign. A comprehensive win tonight should put the tie to bed, but anything but that will ensure a nervous trip to New Zealand a week later.

Key Matches

Portugal vs. Sweden 19:45 15/11/13

Ukraine vs. France 19:45 15/11/13

Cameroon vs. Tunisia 14:00 17/11/13

Algeria vs. Burkina Faso 18:15 19/11/13

Sweden vs. Portugal 19:45 19/11/13

France vs. Ukraine 20:00 19/11/13

 

World Cup Seeds: Farcical FIFA strike again

The FIFA World Rankings can never truly be taken seriously, as has been demonstrated in recent years with England reaching the dizzying heights of 3^rd in the world, whilst Brazil languished in 19^th place. But even now they have surpassed themselves, with their choice of seeded teams for the World Cup being quite frankly ludicrous.

My main gripe with the system is the position Uruguay find themselves in. They came 5^th in the South American qualifying group, and should easily overcome Jordan in a playoff to secure their place in Brazil. However, despite the Uruguayans relatively poor qualifying campaign, they will be one of the top 8 seeds going into the World Cup should they qualify, a fact which is insulting to the nations of Chile and Ecuador.

These two countries finished above Uruguay in the lengthy South American qualification process, where each team played 16 matches yet they are not amongst the seeded nations next summer. This fundamentally highlights the inadequacies of the FIFA World Rankings, and why they should not be relied upon to produce such the seeds for major tournaments, and are therefore not needed at all.

Surely such a lengthy qualification process should have established which of the teams are better than others, and whilst I can accept it would be tough to get rid of seeding discrepancies between different countries in different continents due to the differences in quality, FIFA has no excuse here. Surely if Chile and Ecuador finished above Uruguay in such an arduous qualification process, they themselves should have been seeded? Or at the very least Uruguay should not be seeded at all. But this would require a modicum of common sense, something FIFA are sadly lacking.

And here comes my second gripe about the Uruguay fiasco. Again, assuming that they do qualify, having finished 5^th in the South American group, they will be seeded ahead of Netherlands, a nation with a much better qualifying record. The Dutch won 9 of their 10 matches, yet Uruguay won just under half of theirs. It’s pretty simply which team are deserving of seeded place, yet the FIFA rankings don’t reflect this.

However, this categorically shows that the qualification system used by FIFA cannot be fit for purpose, as they are in effect ignoring the clear facts that it shows them. The rankings are clearly unreliable due to the influence which friendly’s have over them, which is ridiculous. Games which are not part of any competition, and are quintessentially money making schemes for the various football organisations such as the FA should never be taken into account when deciding on the seeds for any competitive tournament, let alone the World Cup.

There should be a set rule to determine the seeds of the World Cup before the qualification starts, which ensures that the World Cup qualifying results alone determines the seeds for the tournament, and not meaningless friendly’s. It would be very simple to implement, all FIFA would have to say for example is the hosts, plus the 3 best South American, the 3 best European, and the best African side would be seeded. Unfortunately, as I alluded to earlier, FIFA pitifully lack the vision and common sense to correct these glaring holes in their seeding process, despite it staring them right in the face.

By the way, Switzerland are seeded as well. Don’t even get me started on that.

Road to Brazil 2014: Only 18 places left

Despite it being 851 days since the first 2014 World Cup qualifier between Montserrat and Belize was played, only 14 of the 32 places have been decided, with 7 places up for grabs over the next few days.

Europe

Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands and Switzerland have already qualified as winners of their respective groups, leaving 8 remaining places for European countries.

Spain and Russia are almost certainties to qualify as they only require 1 point from their final group matches against Georgia and Azerbaijan respectively.

England will also top their group if they beat Poland at Wembley on Tuesday whilst Bosnia and Herzegovina have the relatively easy task of defeating Lithuania away to secure their qualification.

Croatia and Sweden are both guaranteed places in the playoff round where they will almost certainly be joined by Portugal and France who would both need minor miracles to win their groups.

Should results go as expected, Romania, Ukraine and Greece will also make the playoffs whilst Iceland should pip Slovenia to second place in Group E to complete the line up.

North America

With the USA and Costa Rica having already qualified, Honduras need just 1 point in their final match away to Jamaica to secure the final qualification spot. Mexico travel to Costa Rica knowing a draw will be good enough for fourth place, ensuring an intercontinental playoff match with New Zealand whilst a win and a Honduras loss would give them a chance of an automatic qualification place.

South America

Columbia sealed their spot at the Finals alongside Argentina with a dramatic 3 goal comeback at home to Chile a couple of nights ago. Venezuela’s home draw with Paraguay has ensured Ecuador, Chile and Uruguay are all guaranteed at least a place in the intercontinental playoff against Jordan although it is almost certain to be Luis Suarez’s men playing the Jordanians as they lie 3 points adrift of fourth place whilst Ecuador and Chile play each other in the early hours of Wednesday morning. The odds on a draw have been slashed to 3/4 as both countries have every incentive to draw the match and ensure they both qualify.

Africa

5 two-legged playoff ties will determine which of the 10 remaining African countries will be in Brazil next summer, with the first legs being played this week and the return leg in November.

Ivory Coast won their first leg 3-1 in an impressive performance at home to Senegal leaving them as the strong favourites to win the tie, although a late Papiss Cisse goal will give the Senegalese some hope.

Nigeria too look set to win their tie, after they defeated Ethiopia 2-1 away from home. A 90^th minute Emenike penalty was the difference between the sides and has probably put the tie beyond Ethiopia.

Burkino Faso beat Algeria 3-2 at home in a thriller despite twice relinquishing their goal advantage. The result leaves the tie up for grabs with Algeria’s 2 away goals ensuring that they will fancy their chances in Algiers in a month’s time.

Tunisia and Cameroon played out a drab 0-0 draw in Tunis leaving a Samuel Eto’o inspired Cameroon a great chance of qualification should they record a home victory over the Tunisians in November.

Ghana and Egypt kick off their first leg on Tuesday where the Ghanaians will look to exploit their home advantage in what will prove to be a fascinating tie. The bookies can’t split the two African giants leaving the tie well and truly up for grabs.

Key Matches

Ghana vs. Egypt 17:00 15/10/13

Lithuania vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina 18:00 15/10/13

Romania vs. Estonia 19:00 15/10/13

Turkey vs. Netherlands 19:00 15/10/13

Norway vs. Iceland 19:00 15/10/13

Switzerland vs. Slovenia19:00 15/10/13

England vs. Poland 20:00 15/10/13

Spain vs. Georgia 20:00 15/10/13

Costa Rica vs. Mexico 02:30 16/10/13

Jamaica vs. Honduras 02:30 16/10/13

Road to Brazil 2014: Finally it’s got interesting

Internationals, competitive or otherwise are often the bane of football supporter’s lives, as they disrupt the club season whilst fans get increasingly disillusioned by the poorly performing national side. Unfortunately for England fans the coming week is of huge significance as they bid to secure their qualification in a stuttering campaign. However, despite the prospect of enduring 180 torrid minutes of England struggling on the Wembley turf, there are some other tantalising prospects as qualification all over the world nears a climax.

Europe: Group A

Belgium have virtually wrapped up the group, holding a 5 point lead over Croatia who lie in second place although the Croats could apply some pressure on the Belgians last home match vs. Wales should they defeat them in Zagreb.

Europe: Group B

Italy have already secured their ticket to Brazil leaving Bulgaria, Denmark, Czech Republic and Armenia to scrap it out for second. However, despite the Bulgarians holding the advantage in the race for second, they (or any other side which finishes second) may not even qualify for a playoff spot due them currently being the lowest ranked of the runners-up.

Europe: Group C

Germany have been ruthless in their campaign so far with only Sweden taking a single point from them in a dramatic 4 goal comeback. The race for second place is still on though with the Swedes holding a 3 point lead over Austria, but with the teams meeting in Stockholm tomorrow evening, and the Scandinavians facing Germany in their final match that is all subject to change.

Europe: Group D

Holland, similarly to Germany have qualified with ease and remain undefeated in a tricky group. Hungary, Turkey and Romania are only separated by a single point as they pursue second place and despite Romania being the bottom team of the trio, they are in pole position with both Hungary and Turkey facing tough matches against the group leaders.

Europe: Group E

Switzerland have all but secured their third successive World Cup appearance, with a solitary point needed to win the group due to their impressive goal difference. Iceland, Norway, Slovenia and Albania are all closing in on second place. The remaining fixtures have left the group fascinatingly poised, as despite the Icelandic’s currently residing in second place with a winnable home fixture against Cyprus tomorrow evening, their crunch match will come in Oslo next Tuesday.

Europe: Group F

Despite Russia only holding a 1 point lead over Portugal, it should be adequate for them to qualify for their first world cup since 2002 with simple away games against Luxembourg and Azerbaijan to come. Israel are too far behind Portugal to cause them problems, meaning Ronaldo and co will have to make do with the playoffs.

Europe: Group G

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Greece have ran away with the group with both teams being tied on 19 points, although the former have a significantly better goal difference meaning that only a trip to Lithuania and the formality of Liechtenstein at home lie in their way of Brazil ensuring Greece will only make the playoffs.

Europe: Group H

England have a chance to kill off the group with home matches against Montenegro and Poland, but failure to get 6 points would leave the door wide open to an inform Ukraine side who face Poland at home before a relatively simple task of seeing off San Marino. Therefore nothing short of 2 victories will do for England, but should the results go to the formbook, the Three Lions will top the group allowing Ukraine to claim second place leaving Montenegro and Poland falling short.

Europe: Group I

Spain may only be level on points with France, but with a game in hand included in their remaining 2 home matches against Belarus and Georgia qualification is almost a certainty leaving France in the play-offs.

North America

The final 2 rounds of fixtures in the Hexagonal stage take place over the next week leaving Honduras, Mexico and Panama to battle it out for the single remaining automatic qualifying place with an intercontinental clash against New Zealand awaiting the fourth placed side. The USA and Costa Rica have already confirmed qualification whilst Jamaica are adrift at the bottom of the group.

Honduras are 3 points clear in third place with just 4 more points required to reach the world cup from their home match with Costa Rica and away clash in Jamaica, potentially leaving Panama and Mexico to scrap it out for fourth place. Both teams lie on 8 points but face off in The Aztec Stadium leaving the Mexicans the favourites to come fourth in the group, and defeat New Zealand in the playoff.

South America

Argentina are the only team assured of qualification so far, but with the 5^th placed team in the group facing the relatively easy task of brushing aside Jordan in the intercontinental playoff it would be realistic to suggest the current top 5 should all be in Brazil next summer. Columbia, Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay linger behind Argentina to make up the top 5 with only Venezuela having an outside chance of gate crashing the party.  However, they would need to win their remaining fixture against Paraguay whilst relying on either Ecuador or Uruguay losing their remaining games with a significant goal difference swing for this to occur. This means the most crucial remaining game will be the clash between Uruguay and Ecuador, with the loser of this likely to occupy the 5^th place.

Key Matches:

Croatia vs. Belgium 17:00 11/10/13

Sweden vs. Austria 19:45 11/10/13

Slovenia vs. Norway 19:45 11/10/13

England vs. Montenegro 20:00 11/10/13

Ecuador vs. Uruguay 22:00 11/10/13

Mexico vs. Panama 02:30 12/10/13

Lithuania vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina 18:00 15/10/13

Norway vs. Iceland 19:00 15/10/13

England vs. Poland 20:00 15/10/13