Premier League Preview Part 2: Tigers in for a mauling

The relegation battle; arguably the most interesting facet of the Premier League, with it often being decided on the final day of the season with twists and turns at every step. Forget challenging for the title, forget the Champions League, this is what football is about.

Cardiff City, Hull City and Crystal Palace; the 3 promoted teams, surely the favourites for the drop? Well according to the bookies yes, and I agree with two thirds of this, as I see Hull and Crystal Palace going down but not with Cardiff, accompanied with Mark Hughes’ Stoke instead.

Hull City finished second last season, gaining promotion by the skin of their teeth on the final day of the season thanks to Watford’s failure to secure a win at home to Leeds. Despite this they are still ill equipped to deal with the harsh world of the Premier League and have a real lack of quality in their squad. Recently Steve Bruce has assimilated his squad from some rather poor and ineffective Sunderland players such as Ahmed Elmohamedy who could do a job in the Championship, but are likely to be found out at Premier League level. Scottish goalkeeper Allan Macgregor has been their most expensive signing so far in the window at £1.8 million from Besiktas, but this low investment from the club will worry the supporters. Goals will be an issue for the Tigers as Slovenian international midfielder Robert Koren was their top goal scorer last season with a mere 9 goals whilst any defence with Paul McShane in it is liable to particularly leaky. And then there’s the manager, Steve Bruce. A man much maligned by Sunderland fans for his negative style of play and upon his sacking left Sunderland perilously close to the drop. However, he is experienced at Premier League level and if they get off to a good enough start, replicating their early form in the 2008/9 season they may have a slight chance of survival, not that I can see that happening though.

Crystal Palace were promoted courtesy of their 1-0 play-off final win against Watford in May and similarly to Hull, are not prepared for life in the Premier League. Their squad simply lacks the quality needed to survive, especially as their star player from last year, Wilfred Zaha, has been sold to Manchester United for £15 million. They have only partially reinvested their funds, and their most expensive purchase was Peterborough United’s Dwight Gayle, at £4.5 million a big risk for a player with no Premier League experience. Ian Holloway will be an inspirational figure on the touchline, and will have learned from his experience with Blackpool 2 years ago, but even he will struggle to eek 40 points from this side, who will be reliant on achieving a strong start to their season as their results will inevitably wane as the season progresses, as Holloway’s Blackpool illustrated. It is hard to think of 3 teams who will finish below them, and therefore they will languish at the foot of the table, with themselves and Hull occupying the bottom 2 positions.

Stoke are my third tip for the drop, with Cardiff narrowly avoiding it. They have not yet strengthened their squad, whose weakness was exposed at the latter end of last season as they were almost dragged well and truly into the relegation battle. Goals were a huge problem for them last time around, with only 34 scored in 38 games. Only QPR had a worse record in the division. They did have a fairly strong defensive record, largely due to Asmir Begovic’s impressive form, but if this were to dip this term, the Potters could be in serious trouble. And then there’s the issue of their manager, a certain Mark Hughes. The man who managed to spend £27 million in the summer of 2012 whilst ensuring QPR won none of their opening 12 fixtures, which would raise doubts over any potential signings he may make at the Britannia. However, he did successfully manage Blackburn from 2004-8, achieving  a 7^th place finish in the final season of his tenure. This does leave some hope for Stoke, but I cannot see them prolonging their stay in the Premier League beyond this season, as they have removed the stability Tony Pulis provided them.

Championship winners Cardiff will narrowly avoid the drop due to their superior financial power compared to their rivals in the lower echelons of the league, demonstrated by the £7.5 million signing of the Danish international striker Andreas Cornelius. They are also likely to further add to their squad which already possesses some experienced heads, notably former Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle forward Craig Bellamy. Newcastle too will struggle, as off field shenanigans continue to plague them with the unpopular appointment of Joe Kinnear as director of football. It is hard to see what Mike Ashley is trying to achieve through this appointment as Pardew’s position at the club weakens, with his poor tactics being exposed in a disappointing 2012/3 campaign. No big signings have been made yet which will certainly concern the magpie fans as their woefully thin squad could not cope with last season’s gruelling workload. However, they still do possess small amounts of quality in their squad which should see them past the 40 points barrier.

Summary of Predictions:

16. Newcastle United

17. Cardiff City

18. Stoke City

19. Crystal Palace

20. Hull City

Premier League Preview Part 1: Chelsea’s year?

Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea have all changed their managers going into this season, hoping to propel themselves to both domestic and European glory, whilst Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool have persisted with their current bosses, in what should be one of the tightest seasons for years.

The bookies can barely split Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs with the Londoners coming out as marginal favourites, which mirrors the way I anticipate the league going. Mourinho has been brought back in after a 6 year absence from the Bridge, following a 1-1 home draw to Rosenberg in front of a sub 25,000 crowd. He possesses the experience and capabilities to win the league, with two league titles already under his belt, and this year possesses a talented squad capable of lifting the trophy in May. Whilst the German international Andre Schurrle may be their only high profile acquisition of the summer, costing a cool £18 million from Bayer Leverkusen, their squad is still littered with world class players such as Juan Mata, Oscar and Edin Hazard, who are capable of unlocking any defence in the world ensuring that there is less of a burden on strikers Fernando Torres, Demba Ba and Romelu Lukaku to find the net. Frank Lampard and Ramires add steel to their midfield although they have never truly replaced Claude Makelele in central defensive midfield, as Mikel has never performed at the same level in his 7 years at the club. Their back line remains relatively strong with them having the third best defensive record in the league last season, with Cole, Terry, Luiz and Ivanovic providing protection to the ever present Cech. However, the joker in the pack for Chelsea is Mourinho; he is the reason they will win the league, quite simply as he is the best manager in the world and will instantly feel at home with some familiar faces in that Chelsea squad.

Manuel Pellegrini, like Jose Mourinho has too made the move from La Liga to the Premier League although this will be a totally new experience for the former Real Madrid and Malaga manager. However, the premier league may not be his primary objective this season, as City aim to improve on their European form which has been disappointing to say the least in the past few years. He has also been tasked with winning 3 trophies in 3 years so will be under constant pressure though so won’t take the Premier League lightly. £85 million has already been spent by the Citizens this summer, signalling their intent to wrestle the league title back from neighbours Manchester United with Negredo and Jovetic purchased to add firepower upfront in order to replace both Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli. These new strikers scored 48 league goals last season between them so should fill the gap comfortably, especially with the backing of experienced midfielders Fernandinho and Jesus Navas. Their defence remains strong from last year; although Joe Hart will aim to improve his consistency which has come under scrutiny due to mistakes made last season, although he is still capable of producing world class saves, as demonstrated at home to Borussia Dortmund last year. They will be stronger than last year, but that will not elevate them to Chelsea’s level although they should claim the bragging rights over local rivals Manchester United.

The red devil’s reign as Premier League champions will likely come to an abrupt end next season as they are likely to finish outside of the top 2 in what will be a tricky season for David Moyes, as he bids to prove himself to the Old Trafford crowd. No major signings have been made yet despite the attempts to nab Cesc Fabregas from Barcelona, and question marks have been raised over Wayne Rooney’s future at the club due to the well publicised fractured relationship the former Everton striker has with his new boss. However, United will remain strong as they possess the best striker in the league in Robin Van Persie, so always have a goal threat. Their midfield is typically strong and will be strengthened by the returns of Ashley Young and Shinji Kagawa who were injured for large parts of the previous campaign. Moyes is likely to be content with just winning a trophy this time round with the League and FA Cup being the most likely. He will obviously aim to win the league but the competition is tougher than ever before this year, so a top 3 finish will suffice should United challenge on all fronts.

Arsenal are considered to be relative outsiders for the Premier League crown with them being priced at 11/1 to attain Premier League glory. It is highly unlikely they will win the league as they are simply a few signings short of having a strong enough team. In order to win the league they would need to bolster the spine of their team with a new centre back, centre midfielder and striker, although they are trying to rectify the striking situation by targeting Liverpool’s Luis Suarez. Their main aim this year will be to maintain their top 4 status whilst challenging in the 3 other respective competitions as they desperately seek to end their 8 year trophy drought, which is creating mounting pressure on Wenger as the years go by. Their main challenger will be Spurs who, if they keep hold of star players like Gareth Bale could mount a challenge for 4^th spot, which they were so close to grabbing last year. They are also adding to their squad with the arrival of the exciting Brazilian prospect Paulinho from Corinthians for £17 million. This will lead to an intriguing battle as the season wears on although if Bale were to leave spurs, Arsenal should make the top 4 rather comfortably.

Finally, Merseyside rivals Liverpool and Everton will be seeking to challenge for the top 4, although realistically will only manage to grab a Europa League spot providing they are not taken in the domestic cups. Liverpool’s primary objective throughout this summer will be to keep Luis Suarez who they were so heavily reliant last season, as new signing Iago Aspas and January acquisition Daniel Sturridge would be unlikely to provide the same amount of attacking flair and goal threat that the Uruguayan did. Goalkeeper Pepe Reina has been loaned out to Napoli whilst Brendan Rodgers has spent big on Simon Mignolet but the rest of the team remains largely unchanged since last year, which would be a worry for Liverpool fans after their disappointing league performance. Everton have bid David Moyes a fond farewell after over a decade in charge whilst Roberto Martinez aims to prove the doubters wrong, he has immediately signed Arouna Kone for £5 million and Antolin Alcaraz on a free transfer from Wigan. Everton are unlikely to topple their local rivals though as their age old problem of lacking financial backing is likely to cost them dear, as the teams above them, who they crave to be among are all spending copious amounts of money.

Summary of predictions:

1. Chelsea
2. Manchester City
3. Manchester United
4. Arsenal
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Liverpool
7. Everton