Championship Preview Part 2: Relegation surprises? Not this year.

Wolverhampton Wanderers proved that no team is immune from Championship relegation just a few months ago, as they suffered the grisly fate for the second consecutive year. With the league as tight and competitive as ever, it’s a distinct possibility for all teams, although there shouldn’t be too many surprises this year.

Yeovil Town had the lowest budget of all the League 1 clubs last season yet still managed to gain promotion through the playoffs whilst finishing 4^th in the league so cannot be underestimated despite their relative financial weakness compared to their contemporaries. However, the second tier of English football is a different kettle of fish. They have failed to add sufficiently to their squad which will come back to haunt them as their team, despite having plenty of determination will lack the cutting edge quality to close out matches and grind out results when playing badly. The Glovers will be heavily reliant on Irish forward Paddy Madden who aided their promotion push greatly last season with over 20 league goals, making him the most prolific striker in the league. Fellow forward James Hayter, who holds the record for the fastest ever league hat trick ably supported him with 14 league goals. As much as many neutrals would like them to stay up and prosper in the Championship, this is highly unlikely although as there’s no great pressure or expectation on them. Anything’s possible.

Millwall too are likely to face the dreaded drop after what will be their fourth season back in the Championship following their 2010 League 1 playoff win. They have been on a downward spiral since the promotion after failing to emulate their impressive 9^th place finish in their first season back in the Championship. Last year they diced with death, finishing just 2 points above the relegation zone with a very poor second half of the season, losing 14 of their last 23 games, although their FA Cup run to the semi-finals may have been a partial cause for this. Steve Morison and Jermaine Easter have been acquired to boost the striking options of the Lions who were woefully poor in front of goal last season, with only Ipswich scoring fewer league goals. If their tight defence weakens in the coming season, then there could be major problems for the much maligned South London club.

Relegation battles have plagued Barnsley in recent years, with them placing 21^st in the league, just a single place above the relegation zone in the 2 most recent campaigns. Last season their poor defence was notable with 70 goals conceded in just 46 league games, putting an enormous strain on the strike force that unfortunately for them could not compensate. Their budget represents one of a bottom 3 Championship club meaning that they won’t be able to bolster their squad sufficiently to significantly improve on their results since last season. However, Chris O’Grady and Dale Jennings have been brought into assist the forward line but these signings are unlikely to provide the goals required to stay in the division, in what should prove to be another miserable campaign for the Tykes.

Both Doncaster and Blackburn Rovers should have just enough to escape the drop to League 1 despite their likelihood to flirt with the relegation zone throughout what will prove to be turbulent seasons for the respective clubs. Paul Dickov will have a tough job to secure safety for Doncaster but one which should be possible with the club taking much confidence from their impressive displays last season and have even added a Real Madrid player to their side which should just see them over the line. The Lancashire club will also struggle, but mainly due to the disarray which the Venkys have brought in their farcical reign over the club. Managers came and went last season with each change bringing little improvement in results, but Jordan Rhodes should provide enough goals for them to maintain their Championship status.

Summary of predictions:

20. Blackburn Rovers (safe)

21. Doncaster Rovers (safe)

22. Barnsley (relegated)

23. Millwall (relegated)

24. Yeovil Town (relegated)

Championship Preview Part 1: The Hoops will bounce back

Last season only 14 points separated relegated Peterborough and playoff contenders Leicester, who finished 6th. To put this into context, last year 6th placed Everton finished 17 points ahead of Swansea in 9^th in the Premier League.

I bring you the Championship; the best league in the world.

24 teams will start the season playing for 3 of the most coveted spots in all of football; each one being a place in the Premier League, worth an estimated £100 million through the new and improved TV deal recently agreed. The league is made additionally fascinating by the differences in club stature involved. Yeovil Town are in the second tier of English football for the first time and will come up against former European Champions Nottingham Forest with the results never being completely certain. After all, Norwich and Southampton found themselves in League 1 just a few years ago. So who is going to prosper and succeed in their quest for the Premier League, and who will fall into the doldrums of League 1? It’s almost impossible to call.

In theory QPR should win the league. They have an experienced team full of long time Premier League players, as well as having the funds available to add to their squad should there be a need come January.  Despite releasing high calibre players like Djibril Cisse and Jose Bosingwa their team is littered with internationals and former Premier League winners such as Ji Sung Park and Shaun Wright Phillips. These players should possess the quality to see them through the season, and due to their high wages are in many cases unlikely to leave the club, meaning only a poor attitude could lead to QPR not doing well next season. In Harry Redknapp they have a tremendously experienced manager, able to unite and inspire a team, albeit if his tactics are not flawless. However, as the main issue for QPR may be their attitude and application, he could be the perfect man for the job. Make no mistake, anything but promotion for QPR next season would be deemed as a massive failure.

Reading as well should benefit through retaining the vast majority of their squad from last season’s exploits. They are well placed for an immediate return as last year they didn’t break the bank with new signings so their wage bill will still be relatively low, as the clubs finances will be boosted by the parachute payments of £15 million a year for the next 4 years (unless they are promoted back to the Premier League in that time). Players such as Adam le Fondre and Jimmy Kebe should be prolific in the second tier, with the former notching 12 goals in their 2011/2 Championship campaign.

Nottingham Forest under Billy Davies are likely to be hot on the heels of QPR and Reading, but similarly to the 2006/7 promotion season the Scottish manager enjoyed at Derby County, they will have to settle for a playoff spot. Last season they did occupy a place in the top 6 for 11 weeks in the season, and only dropped down to 7^th and 8^th place in the final 5 games of the season despite a turbulent season where 3 fulltime managers were required after Steve Cotterill, then Alex McLeish were sacked midway through the season. This means that with the right manager the group of players could well finish highly in the league, with Billy Davies having an immediate impact last season with his arrival coinciding with a 10 game unbeaten run.

Bolton Wanderers should also be able to grab a playoff place, which they so nearly attained last year with their 7^th place finish decided by goal difference after a disappointing home draw to Blackpool on the final day of the season. Last year they struggled to adapt to the Championship, with a poor start of just 11 points in 10 games, but had a spirited rally towards the end of the season losing just 3 of their last 17 games. Dougie Freedman should be able to maintain this form with the addition of Jermaine Beckford to his squad although long time servant Kevin Davies has left for Preston. One major concern for them though could be the fitness of Stuart Holden. The talented American international suffered a serious knee injury 2 years ago and potentially may have another career threatening issue. However, the Trotters should still be able to seal a playoff spot with the firepower of former Liverpool forward David N’Gog up front and last season’s top goal scorer, Chris Eagles, playing on the wing.

Leicester City had playoff heartbreak just a few months ago, when Anthony Knockart missed a penalty to claim a place in the final, only for it to be missed along with the rebound leading to a Watford counter attack producing the tie winning goal just 20 seconds later. They will have a chance to right this wrong come May next year as they should enjoy a fruitful campaign. They were almost a permanent fixture in the top 6 last season with brief dalliances in the automatic promotion positions, with David Nugent being crucial to this with his 14 league goals. Despite Jermaine Beckford leaving, the Foxes should still have the fire power to progress well in the league. However, their away form may need to improve as last season they only managed 6 wins on the road out of a possible 23 which included defeats away to the relegated Wolves and Peterborough.

There’s normally one outsider in the playoffs by the end of the season; often a team totally out of the blue which can go on to gain promotion such as Ian Holloway’s Blackpool in 2010. Mick McCarthy started managing the Tractor Boys when they were bottom of the league with only one league victory from their opening 13 games. He sparked a mini revival as they finished the league in 14^th position. A job well done for Mick as in the end he only finished 8 points off the playoff spots. He also has a track record of taking teams from the Championship to the Premier League which he did for both Sunderland and Wolves so could work his magic once again.

There are some notably absences from my top 6 predictions; mainly Watford and Wigan. The Hornets certainly have potential to figure at the top of the table at the end of the season, but their demoralising defeat in the playoff final last year and the likely loss of last season’s top goal scorer Matej Vydra will be huge setbacks for them, and will reduce their chances of a success significantly. Wigan are also unlikely to have an especially strong league campaign with the turmoil which will inevitably take place through their relegation and manager Roberto Martinez leaving. The exodus has started with Arouna Kone moving to Everton for £5 million and he will likely to be followed by their other talented players such as Callum McManaman who will be on the radar of Premier League clubs due to his impressive form last year, not to mention the tough Europa League campaign which will kick off in the Autumn.

Summary of predictions:

1. QPR (Champions)

2. Reading (Promoted)

3. Nottingham Forest (Playoffs)

4. Bolton Wanderers (Playoffs)

5. Leicester City (Playoffs)

6. Ipswich Town (Playoffs)